01 — Population & Demographic Growth
◈ Annual Population Growth — Texas (2018–2025)
◈ Metro Population 2024 (millions)
Dallas–Fort Worth8.3M
Houston7.6M
San Antonio2.7M
Austin2.4M
El Paso0.9M
Fort Worth1.0M
Fastest Growing City (2024)Princeton, TX
Princeton growth rate+30.6%
Growth concentration95% in MSAs
Projected Pop. 206042.6M
02 — Employment & Job Growth
◈ Annual Job Gains (YoY, thousands)
◈ Sector Job Growth Leaders (YoY %)
◈ Key Employment Stats
Nonfarm Jobs (Aug 2025)14,347,700
Jobs Added (2025 YTD)+132,500
TX vs National growth rate+0.5% ahead
Financial Activities growth+2.6%
Job openings added (YoY)+215,500
April 2025 single-month adds+37,700
Civilian labor force15,857,300 (record)
Total employment incl. self15,213,500
HEADLINE
Texas leads all 50 states in job creation for 2025. 2.5 million jobs added since 2015 — more than any other state.
03 — Traffic & Population Mobility (Google Movement Index)
◈ Relative Mobility & Traffic Demand — Texas Major Markets vs. Pre-Pandemic Baseline
DFW
+14%
vs. 2019 baseline
Houston
+11%
vs. 2019 baseline
Austin
+9%
vs. 2019 baseline
San Antonio
+8%
vs. 2019 baseline
Plano / Frisco
+22%
High-growth suburb
Note: Google Community Mobility data tracks movement in retail & recreation, grocery, transit, workplaces, and residential zones. Suburban corridors (Plano, Frisco, Princeton, McKinney, Sugar Land, Katy) show the highest mobility increases above baseline, reflecting net migration patterns into fast-growing suburbs. DFW freeway VMT (vehicle miles traveled) continues rising — I-35W, SH-121, and Hwy 380 corridors are among the most congested expansion zones, presenting strong retail and mixed-use demand signals.
◈ Highway / Commuter Traffic Index (TxDOT)
◈ High-Growth Corridors to Watch
DFW Corridor
Hwy 380 (Collin County) — Princeton, McKinney, Anna corridor seeing 30%+ population surge. TxDOT expansion underway.
Houston Corridor
I-10 Katy/Cypress corridor & TX-99 Grand Pkwy ring driving massive suburban expansion west and north of Houston.
Austin Corridor
SH-130 / I-35 south corridor — Buda, Kyle, Georgetown experiencing explosive growth driven by tech migration.
San Antonio
I-35 North (New Braunfels → Schertz) and Loop 1604 expansion enabling major industrial and residential development.
04 — Area Demand & Commercial Real Estate Market
◈ CRE Sector Scorecard — Texas (Q4 2025)
| Sector | Vacancy | Rent/SF | Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial | 8.5% (statewide) | $10.60–$14.30 | STABILIZING |
| Retail | DFW <5% | $20–$25+ | STEALTH WINNER |
| Multifamily | ~10% (varied) | $1,440/mo avg | REBALANCING |
| Office Class A+ | Elevated | $29–$44 | FLIGHT-TO-QUALITY |
| Office B/C | High | Declining | SOFT |
| Data Centers | Near zero | Premium | BOOMING |
| Build-to-Rent | Strong demand | 22,000 units pipeline | HOT |
◈ Market Demand by Metro (Investability Index)
◈ Metro-Level CRE Detail
| Market | Industrial Vacancy | Retail Rent | MF Absorption |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas–Fort Worth | Stabilized | $25/SF+ | 7,400 units Q1 |
| Houston | 6.3% — Strong | $20.46/SF avg | Positive |
| Austin | ~20% — High | $14.70/SF | Correcting |
| San Antonio | 8–10% — Balanced | $6–7/SF | Steady |
DFW data center sites w/ power infraExtraordinarily valuable
TX leads BTR development22,000 units pipeline
Grocery-anchored retail cap rateBelow 5% — premium
Industrial rent growth 2026 (DFW/HOU)+3% forecast
◈ Investment Capital Distribution (Estimated, 2025)
05 — New Business & Corporate Announcements
◈ Major Recent Project Announcements
Lily Pharmaceuticals
First API manufacturing facility in Texas
Harris County
$6.5B · 600+ jobs
Samsung
2nm semiconductor fab expansion
Taylor, TX
$4.73B investment
SpaceX
Semiconductor R&D expansion
Bastrop, TX
$280M · 400 jobs
Vantage Data Centers
Tech campus development
San Antonio
$272M · 200K+ SF
Scotiabank
Major regional office
Dallas
$60M investment
Ninth Avenue Foods
New manufacturing facility
Longview
$200M · 150 jobs
GAF Energy
HQ relocation from San Jose
Georgetown
Solar + clean energy
Energy Abundance
50K-acre data center hub
Laredo
Massive infrastructure
◈ HQ Relocations to Texas (Recent Years)
Chevron
San Ramon, California
Houston, TX
Energy major
Tesla
Palo Alto, California
Austin, TX
Gigafactory + HQ
Caterpillar
Deerfield, Illinois
Irving, TX
Global HQ
Charles Schwab
San Francisco, CA
Westlake, TX
New campus
NYSE Texas
NYSE Chicago reincorp.
Dallas, TX
New exchange
NASDAQ Regional HQ
New regional office
Dallas, TX
Financial anchor
KFC / Yum! Brands
Louisville, Kentucky
Plano, TX
Global HQ
Lollicup USA
California
Rockwall, TX
$20M · 650K SF facility
06 — EDC Targets & Development Demand (City Economic Dev. Councils)
EDC Intelligence: Texas EDCs (Economic Development Corporations) across DFW, Houston, San Antonio and Austin sub-markets are actively recruiting the following development types, based on alignment with city master plans, infrastructure readiness, and incentive offerings (TIRZ, CDBG, TEF grants, sales tax EDC funds).
Manufacturing / Industrial
Advanced Manufacturing & Semiconductor Facilities
EDCs in Taylor, Georgetown, Bastrop, Sherman actively incentivizing semiconductor, EV battery, and precision manufacturing. CHIPS Act dollars flowing. TxEDC prioritizing reshoring.
Data Centers / Tech
AI / Cloud Data Center Development
DFW, San Antonio, Laredo corridors offering power-ready land with ERCOT access. Highest demand for sites with existing fiber + 138kV+ substations. Aligned Data Centers, Vantage, Google expanding.
Build-to-Rent / Workforce Housing
Attainable & Workforce Housing Developments
Most TX EDCs have affordable housing gap. Cities like Killeen, Waco, Lubbock, San Antonio actively seeking workforce multifamily (BTR, small-format MF). Incentives via TIRZ and tax exemptions.
Energy Infrastructure
Clean Energy & Grid Resilience Projects
Texas leads in wind & solar. EDCs in West Texas, Permian Basin, and coastal regions prioritizing solar + battery storage + hydrogen. Texas Energy Fund deploying capital.
Retail / Mixed-Use
Grocery-Anchored & Suburban Retail Centers
High-growth suburban EDCs (Princeton, Anna, Waxahachie, Hutto, Pflugerville) desperately need grocery-anchored retail, services, and dining to serve new population. Vacancy <5% in DFW suburbs.
Hospitality
Limited-Service Hotel & Extended-Stay Development
Corridor markets around new Samsung, Tesla, SpaceX facilities need extended-stay and limited-service hotels. EDCs in Taylor, Bastrop, Rockwall, Sherman creating hotel incentive packages.
Healthcare / Life Sciences
Medical Office & Life Sciences Campus
Houston's Texas Medical Center — largest in world — spawning life sciences cluster. Lily's $6.5B API facility signals pharmaceutical demand. Austin and DFW EDCs recruiting biotech.
Logistics / Last-Mile
Distribution & Logistics Hubs
Reshoring & e-commerce driving demand for cross-dock, last-mile DCs. EDCs along I-35 corridor (Laredo to Dallas), I-10 (Houston-San Antonio), and DFW AllianceTexas actively recruiting 3PL operators.
Education / Innovation
University Research Parks & Innovation Districts
UT Austin, A&M System, UT Dallas and UT San Antonio surrounds are EDC targets for mixed-use innovation districts, incubators, and R&D campuses tied to TSIF semiconductor funding.
07 — Market Intelligence & News Feed
◈ Recent Headlines
Finance
NYSE Texas launching as new equities exchange headquartered in Dallas, joining NASDAQ regional HQ — could make Texas home to 3 exchanges.
Pharma / Industrial
Lily announces $6.5B API manufacturing facility in Harris County — first active pharmaceutical ingredient plant in the state.
Semiconductor
Samsung invests $4.73B in Taylor fab for 2nm chip transition; SpaceX expands $280M Bastrop semiconductor R&D facility.
Energy / Cleantech
GAF Energy (solar) relocates HQ from San Jose to Georgetown; Energy Abundance planning 50K-acre data center hub near Laredo.
◈ Macro Risk & Watch Factors
Risk
Texas population growth slowest since 2021 (+1.2%). Immigration declined 48%, moderating labor supply and possibly economic growth trajectory.
Risk
Austin multifamily vacancy near 20%; oversupply continues correcting. Industrial deliveries ran 2x net absorption in mid-2025 statewide.
Risk
Rising insurance costs impacting CRE: multifamily premiums jumped from 7% to 14.3% of NOI since 2018. Lending at 6–6.5%, 65% LTV.
Opportunity
Slower growth = infrastructure breathing room. Local officials gaining time to upgrade roads, utilities, and schools ahead of next wave.